The image on the left shows the age of sea-ice at its minimum (summer) extent in September 1989, the right depicts the equivalent point in 2007.
Original Source: Dr. Ignatius Rigor, Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

Predicted Arctic melt. Minimum summer sea-ice extent, observed and predicted, 1950-2100. Arctic ice extent loss observed to September 2007 (black line) compared to IPCC modelled changes (grey backgrounds and dashed black lines, mean as red line) using the SRES A2 scenario (high greenhouse gas emissions). The dashed pink line represents the trajectory predicted by some Arctic scientists
Original Source: Dr Asgeir Sorteberg. Bjeknes Centre for Climate Research and University Center at Svalbard, Norway

Melt of the tundra will relaes methane, creating a huge dangerous positive feedback
Original Source: Permafrost coverage in the northern hemisphere. Source: UNEP

Latest Climate Change News  General climate feed  Our top climate stories  Climate consequences  Climate solutions  Climate causes  Climate politics  Climate and spread of disease  Climate and ocean acidification  Climate and sea level rise
 
2008 Polar Ice second lowest on record after 2007  

James Hansen's Website - the most authoritative climate scientist
Recent articles:

• Sep. 10, 2008: In Defence of Kingsnorth Six: Testimony for criminal trial in Kent, United Kingdom
• Aug. 4, 2008: Trip Report: Reactions in Germany, UK and Japan, and implications for post-Kyoto climate agreements; 4th generation (fast reactor) nuclear power; boron- and hydrogen-powered cars; sun & climate
• July 3, 2008: Dear Prime Minister Fukuda: A letter to leader of Japan before the G8 meeting
• June 23, 2008: Global Warming -- Tipping Points: Today's presentation at the National Press Club, and briefing to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming. Related slides are available in PDF (2.9 MB) or PowerPoint (7.1 MB).

---

Climate change images: New  Glaciers  Temperature  Co2  Sea Level  Flood risk  Future Predictions  Other Greenhouse Gases 

Sea Level Rise Flood Maps Check what happnes with different Sea level rises in your area!
Check  Cairns  Sunshine Coast  Brisbane/Caboolture  Gold Coast  Tweed Heads/Murwillumbah  Yamba/Grafton  Ballina/Evans Head  Kempsey  Port Macquarie  Taree  Newcastle/Lower Hunter  Drummoyne/Auburn  Nowra  Melbourne/Geelong/Chelsea! 
Where are the government infrastructure effects reports?

US Union Of Concerned Scientists: U.S. Scientists and Economists’ Call for Swift and Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions May 2008  

Arctic Ice: Going, going, almost gone!
A new WWF report, called Arctic Climate Impact Science – An Update Since ACIA, represents the most wide-ranging reviews of arctic climate impact science since the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) was published in 2005. It concludes that climate change is having a greater and faster impact on the Arctic than previously thought.

Arctic sea ice minimum extent in September 1982, 2005 and 2007. (2007). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 08:34, May 11, 2008 from http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent-in-september-1982-2005-and-2007  

 Arctic Sea Ice Monitoring - Declining arctic sea ice is practical proof of global warming



The Bali Action Plan’s sole footnote refers to the volumes and page numbers where the 25 to 40 percent reductions in emissions appear in the IPCC reports:
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Working Group III Report "Mitigation of Climate Change"
p776 Ch13 Policies, Instruments and Co-operative Arrangements
Scenario                         Category        Region 2020            2050
A-450 ppm CO2-eqb    Annex I          –25% to –40%        –80% to –95%
(Australia is an Annex I country)
Dr James Hansen's paper referenced below says, based on the latest physical evidence of warming, that the required targets to avoid dangerous climate change is 300 to 350ppm which implies that the cuts need to be at least at the higher end of the IPCC range, if not even higher.
 

The 3 main global sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):
   1. Solid fuels (e.g. coal): 35%
   2. Liquid fuels (e.g. gasoline): 36%
   3. Gaseous fuels (e.g. natural gas): 20%
Raupach, M.R. et al. (2007) "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions." Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 104(24): 10288–10293.
If gas is given an emissions coefficient of 1, black coal produce 1.5 times and brown coal 2 times as much  carbon emissions per unit of electricity produced. (a)  To reduce GHG emissions you have to close coal fired power stations, and the best ones to close are the brown coal burning ones like Hazelwood in Victoria.

Google Earth Outreach: Climate change in our World
Gotta see it to believe it? Behold: Climate Change in Our World, a project from Google Earth and British environmental and meteorological offices that gives a visual representation of what we've got in store. Using NASA satellite images and medium-case climate scenarios, the project uses time-lapse animation to illustrate predicted planetary changes through 2100. Viewers can watch the whole globe heat up, or zoom in on different countries and cities. Says U.K. Environment Secretary Hilary Benn, "By helping people to understand what climate change means for them and for the world we can mobilize the commitment we need to avoid the worst effects by taking action now."
First get Google Earth if you don't already have it
Then download Climate Change in our World 

New reports:

Garnaut Climate Change Review -
    Final report released 30 Sept 08 - Final Report | Technical appendix | Media release | Public address 
    Draft report released 04 July 2008: website | press release | full draft report |
Australia's Energy [r]evolution Scenario: Summary | Full Report (pdf 1MB)
A Just Transition to a Renewable Energy Economy in the Hunter Region, Australia (Greenpeace) (pdf file 770kb)
Sydney Coastal Councils Report: Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises
       Summary | Report (you have to provide your details to get access to the pdf file)
Greenpeace report: "Clean Coal" (CCS) is false hope.
Garnaut Review Reports  
Gore's New Slideshow 
Ausra: Solar Proposal For Australia 
Feed in Tariffs for South Australia - What about NSW?  
US Gulf  of Mexico report needed for Gold Coast 
Dr James Hansen - March '08 review of CO2 stabilisation targets 
Dr James Hansen Letter to Kevin Rudd re Coal 
Climate Code Red 
BaliClimate Conference 
IPCC 4th Assessment Report Synthesis Report Summary  
The Big Melt  
Setting Targets 
Rationing Carbon 
Avoiding Catastrophe

Wikipedia Articles on Climate Change and Australia:
Wind power in Australia
Avoiding Catastrophe
Climate change in_Australia
Avoiding Catastrophe
Effects of global warming on Australia
Wind power in Australia
Solar power in Australia
Feed-in tariffs in Australia
Energy policy of Australia
List of proposed coal fired power stations in Australia
Mandatory renewable energy targets

Envirowiki articles on Climate Change and Australia:
Carbon Capture and Storage in Australia

Join: info@drummoyneclimateaction.org

The Global mean temperature rise has been 0.8C since the late 1880s, but due to "thermal imbalance" there is a latent temperature rise of about 0.6C already coming, which will result in a rise of 1.4C for the present level of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Take Action:

Write to
Angela D'Amore MLA - Member for Drummoyne
Greg Long - Endorsed Liberal Candidate for Drummoyne 
Angelo Tsirekas - Mayor, City of Canada Bay
John Murphy MP - Member for Lowe

Switch to new renewable electricity.
See http://www.greenelectricitywatch.org.au/ and particularly the scorecard
The products ranked highest are:
GreenEarth Solar Origin NSW, SA, Vic
GreenEarth Wind Origin NSW, SA, Vic
TRUenergy Wind Power TRUenergy ACT, NSW, SA, Vic
You can choose lower ranked products at lower additional cost. Use the  scorecard to select a product that is right for you.
See estimates of additional cost of new renewable energy

Demands:

The main demands of the Drummoyne - Lowe - Canada Bay Climate Action Group are:
1. legislate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in NSW of at 40% on 1990 levels by 2020 (up from 30% because of ice melt evidence  and IPCC Bali  outcomes)
2. stop the proposed Anvil Hill coal mine as a first step towards stopping the expansion of the Hunter Valley coal industry;
3. introduce a moratorium on new coal-fired power stations without CCS in Australia;
4. introduce a legislated state renewable energy target; 15% by 2012 and 25% by 2020;
5. stop nuclear power in Australia and expansion of uranium exports;

The group will also campaign for implementation of local GHG emissions reducing steps that are within the authority of Canada Bay Council.

Information:

 
IPCC 4th Assessment Report Synthesis Report Summary The official guide from the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change.

The Big Melt  The ice is melting at a much faster rate than the IPCC recognised in its latest reports, which means the rate of cut in emissions and the "acceptable " warming is overstated in IPCC reports.

Setting Targets Start with the temperature that protects species and people now and for future generations, determine the CO2 level that supports that temperature, reduce emissions accordingly. The world is already 0.3 ºC warmer than our recommended maximum temperature cap and we are 50ppm CO2e over the maximum greenhouse gas cap.

Rationing Carbon Oslo’s Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research calculates we need a 95% cut by 2050 for high-polluting nations such as Australia. IAN DUNLOP, former Australian senior fossil fuel industry executive: “The schemes so far discussed at State and National level are not sufficiently comprehensive for the task we now face. The simplest, most practical variant, which overcomes their flaws, is a system of Tradeable Energy Quotas… an electronic system for rationing energy.” http://cpd.org.au/node/4034

Avoiding Catastrophe Based on existing CO2 we already have 0.8 Degs C of warming, with another 0.6 already inevitable. This total 1.4 degs C is enough to destroy most coral reefs and arctic sheet ice and cause real risks of instability of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We actually have to reduce current levels of CO2 and reduce temperature to avoid dangerous climate change.

Pipe Dreams - why Australia is playing a dangerous game by pretending it can clean up coal - Greenpeace

Effects of global warming on Australia - Wikipedia  Summarises CSIRO article immediately below.

Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
    CSIRO Preston, B.L. and Jones, R.N. February, 2006 A consultancy report for the Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change

The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), at Columbia University in New York City

Is the New UN Global Warming Report Too Conservative? (MR Zine, Monthly Review, 17 Feb 07, by Brett Clark and John Bellamy Foster)

Scientists sound alarm over melting Antarctic ice sheets (The Independent, UK, By Steve Connor, Science Editor in San Francisco Published: 16 February 2007)

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Working Group I Summary for Policymakers 

Churches and Humanitarian Groups Call For Climate Change Action

Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006 (2Mb pdf file)

Schwarzenegger Orders Cuts in Emissions  (NY Times Article)
 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Union of Concerned Scientists Report says ExxonMobil muddies global warming science

Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change

The Stern Report (UK Treasury)- Depression if Climate Change not Fixed

CSIRO Report on Australia's Risk of and Vulnerability to Climate Change 

Climate Refugees - Greenpeace summary of Dr Norman Myers estimate of 150 Million climate refugees by 2050

Greenpeace Australia Pacific Climate Change Pages

See the Movie "An Inconvenient Truth"  by buying the DVD as it is released on 27 January 2007

Read the Book: The Weathermakers by Tim Flannery .

For more information on the group contact info@drummoyneclimateaction.org  or visit:
http://www.climatemovement.org.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=72

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 

(Summary from Wikipedia)

This is the fourth in a series of reports on climate change.

So far only the Working Group 1 - Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) has been published.

Report Overview
The Fourth Assessment Report (Climate Change 2007) is released in four distinct sections:

Working Group I Report (WGI) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Working Group II Report (WGII) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Working Group III Report (WGIII) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change
The Synthesis Report (SYR)

For each section, the IPCC will release the main report and a summary version, known as the Summary for Policy Makers. To date, only the Summary for Policy Makers of the WGI report has been completed and released. Author lists and a chapter outline of the reports are available.


Working Group I (WGI) The Physical Science Basis
The Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (SPM)  was published on 2 February 2007 and revised on 5 February 2007; the full WGI report will be published a few months later.

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, the report of Working Group I, "assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change".

The report was produced by around 600 authors from 40 countries, and reviewed by over 620 experts and governments. Before being accepted, the summary was reviewed line-by-line by representatives from 113 governments during the 10th Session of Working Group I,[3] which took place in Paris, France, between 29 January and 1 February 2007.

On the issue of global warming and its causes, the SPM states that::

"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal"
"Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
Footnotes on page 4 of the summary indicate very likely and likely mean "the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement", are over 90% and 66% respectively.

Anthropogenic means caused by human activity.


Observations
The report noted many observed changes in the Earth's climate including atmospheric composition, global average temperatures, ocean conditions, and other climate changes.


Changes in the atmosphere
Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are all long-lived greenhouse gases.

"Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values."
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2005 (379 ppm) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm).
The amount of methane in the atmosphere in 2005 (1774 ppb) exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb).
The primary source of the increase in carbon dioxide is fossil fuel use, but land-use changes also make a contribution.
The primary source of the increase in methane is very likely to be a combination of human agricultural activities and fossil fuel use. How much each contributes is not well determined.
Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen from a pre-industrial value of 270 ppb to a 2005 value of 319 ppb. More than a third of this rise is due to human activity, primarily agriculture.

Warming of the planet
Cold days, cold nights, and frost events have become less frequent. Hot days, hot nights and heat waves have become more frequent. Additionally:

Eleven of the twelve years in the period (1995-2006) rank amont the top 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850).
Warming in the last 100 years has caused about a 0.74 °C increase in global average temperature. This is up from the 0.6 °C increase in the 100 years prior to the Third Assessment Report.
Urban heat island effects were determined to have neglible influence (less than 0.0006 °C per decade over land and zero over oceans) effect on these measurements.
Observations since 1961 show that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system, and that ocean temperatures have increased to depths of at least 3000m (9800 ft).
"Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years."
It is likely that greenhouse gases would have caused more warming than we have observed if not for the cooling effects of volcanic and human-caused aerosols. See global dimming.
Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years.

Ice, snow, permafrost, rain and the oceans
The SPM documents increases in wind intensity, decline of permafrost coverage, and increases of both drought and heavy precipitation events. Additionally:

"Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres."
Losses from the land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have very likely (>90%) contributed to sea level rise over 1993 to 2003.
Ocean warming causes seawater to expand, which contributes to sea level rising.
Sea level rose at an average rate of about 1.8mm/year over 1961-2003. Sea level rising over 1993-2003 was at an average rate of 3.1mm/year. It is not clear whether this is a long-term trend or just variability.
Antarctic sea ice shows no significant overall trend, consistent with a lack of warming in that region.

Hurricanes
There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates with increases in sea surface temperature.
The observed increase in hurricane intensity is larger than climate models predict for the sea surface temperature changes we have experienced.
There is no clear trend in the number of hurricanes.
Other regions appear to have experienced increased hurricane intensity as well, but there are concerns about the quality of data in these other regions.
It is more likely than not (>50%) that there has been some human contribution to the increases in hurricane intensity.
It is likely (>66%) that we will see increases in hurricane intensity during the 21st century.
Table SPM-2 lists recent trends along with certainty levels for the trend having actually ocurred, for a human contribution to the trend, and for the trend occurring in the future. In relation to changes (including increased hurricane intensity) where the certainity of a human contribution is stated as "more likely than not" footnote f to table SPM-2 notes "Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgement rather than formal attribution studies."


Factors that warm or cool the planet
AR4 describes warming and cooling effects on the planet in terms of radiative forcing. The report show in detail the individual warming contributions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, other human warming factors and the warming effects of changes in solar activity. Also shown are the cooling effects of aerosols, land-use changes, and other human activities. All values are shown as a change from pre-industrial conditions.

Total radiative forcing from the sum of all human activities is a warming force of about +1.6 watts/m2
Radiative forcing from an increase of solar intensity since 1750 is about +0.12 watts/m2
Radiative forcing from carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide combined is very likely (>90%) increasing more quickly during the current era (1750-present) than at any other time in the last 10,000 years.

Climate sensitivity
Climate sensitivity is defined as the amount of global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5 °C, with a best estimate of about 3 °C. This range of values is not a projection of the temperature rise we will see in the 21st century.


Model-based projections for the future
Model projections are made based on an analysis of various computer climate models running within different SRES scenarios.

As a result it is predicted that, during the 21st century:

Surface air warming in the 21st century:
Best estimate for a "low scenario" is 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)
Best estimate for a "high scenario" is 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)
A temperature rise of about 0.1 °C per decade would be expected for the next two decades, even if greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations were kept at year 2000 levels.
A temperature rise of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for the next two decades for all SRES scenarios.
Confidence in these near-term projections is strengthened because of the agreement between past model projections and actual observed temperature increases.
Based on multiple models that all exclude ice sheet flow due to a lack of basis in published literature,[7] it is estimated that sea level rise will be:
in a low scenario 18 to 38 cm (7 to 15 inches)
in a high scenario 26 to 59 cm (10 to 23 inches)
It is very likely that there will be an increase in frequency of warm spells, heat waves and events of heavy rainfall.
It is likely that there will be an increase in areas affected by droughts, intensity of tropical cyclones (which include hurricanes and typhoons) and the occurrence of extreme high tides.
"Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic … In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century."
Scenario specific projections are based on analysis of multiple runs by multiple climate models, using the various SRES Scenarios. "Low scenario" refers to the most optimistic scenario family, B1. "High scenario" refers to the most pessimistic scenario family, A1FI.


Temperature and sea level rise for each SRES scenario family
Scenario B1
Best estimate temperature rise of 1.8 °C with a likely range of 1.1 to 2.9 °C (3.2 °F with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.2 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [18 to 38 cm] (7 to 15 inches)
Scenario A1T
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [20 to 45 cm] (8 to 18 inches)
Scenario B2
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.4 °C with a likely range of 1.4 to 3.8 °C (4.3 °F with a likely range of 2.5 to 6.8 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [20 to 43 cm] (8 to 17 inches)
Scenario A1B
Best estimate temperature rise of 2.8 °C with a likely range of 1.7 to 4.4 °C (5.0 °F with a likely range of 3.1 to 7.9 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [21 to 48 cm] (8 to 19 inches)
Scenario A2
Best estimate temperature rise of 3.4 °C with a likely range of 2.0 to 5.4 °C (6.1 °F with a likely range of 3.6 to 9.7 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [23 to 51 cm] (9 to 20 inches)
Scenario A1FI
Best estimate temperature rise of 4.0 °C with a likely range of 2.4 to 6.4 °C (7.2 °F with a likely range of 4.3 to 11.5 °F)
Sea level rise likely range [26 to 59 cm] (10 to 23 inches)

Selected quotes from the WGI Summary for Policy Makers
"Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere."

Garnaut Climate Change Review 

Draft report released 04 July 2008: website | press release | full draft report |

Summary
1. Transport should be included in an emissions trading scheme and including as many sectors as possible will help spread the costs across the economy.
2. $3 billion per year should be committed to low-emissions technology research and development and a new research council should be set up to coordinate this.
3. An emissions trading scheme is the best option to reduce emissions as compared to a tax or hybrid scheme.
4. Emissions permits should be sold competitively.
5. The emissions trading scheme could have a transitional phase from 2010-2012 - during this time permits could be sold at a "low, fixed" price.
6. The Building Australia Fund, announced in the May Federal Budget, should also be used for energy infrastructure.
7. Energy Prices will rise under the scheme and will hit low-income households hardest - these households will need to be compensated.
8. Half of the funds collected from the sale of permits can be used to compensate households through tax and social security payments.
9. Australia should lead the way in making carbon capture storage commercially viable and to help Asia reduce their levels.
10. Areas that rely on coal-based power stations will need specific support.

Problems
1. CO2 stabilisation point chosen will result in catastrophic damage based on work of Dr James Hansen - pre-eminent  climate scientist. 300 to 350 is the maximum acceptable range based on avoiding glacier, sea ice and tundra melt.
2.  False hope of carbon capture and storage as a solution not discounted for 2020 targets
3.  Failure to advise against building of new coal fired power stations (or at least those without CCS) as recommended by Hansen in his Letter to Prime Minister Rudd